Update 4:08PM: The City of Seattle updated their forecast at 3:30 pm which includes a Coastal Flood Advisory tomorrow. Scupper, Beach Drive Blog’s other reporter wanted me to mention that other weather models we’ve found more accurate at times have gusts topping out at 43 at 5PM Sunday. It’ll be interesting to see which model prevails.

SEATTLE AND VICINITY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…SEATTLE…SHORELINE…FEDERAL WAY…
KENT
330 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

…COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 11 AM PDT SUNDAY…
…HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY…

TONIGHT…WINDY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING…THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE…EXCEPT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…VERY WINDY. RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT…VERY WINDY. RAIN AT TIMES IN THE EVENING…THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WIND 25 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

**Beginning of the original post**

From the National Weather Service:


URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
158 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

WAZ504-507-509-511-512-555-556-558-559-131100-
/O.UPG.KSEW.HW.A.0002.160313T1900Z-160314T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KSEW.HW.W.0004.160313T1900Z-160314T0600Z/
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-
LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-
BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-
158 PM PST SAT MAR 12 2016

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM PDT SUNDAY. THE HIGH
WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. STRONGEST
  WINDS WILL LIKELY BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH
  POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH TO
  SOUTHWEST AND RISE...WITH STRONGEST WINDS REACHING 30 TO 45 MPH
  WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
  EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE EVENING.

* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ARE LIKELY.
  SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS IS POSSIBLE. REMEMBER THAT FALLING
  TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS OF
58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

Puget Sound Marine Forecast was updated this morning:

 SUN  SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT...BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT IN THE  AFTERNOON. WIND WAVES 2 TO 5 FT. RAIN.  
SUN NIGHT  S WIND 35 TO 45 KT...BECOMING SW DURING THE EVENING.  WIND WAVES 6 TO 8 FT.

The National Weather Service has issued a High Wind Watch:

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
  WILL LIKELY BE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
  AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS...FAIRLY WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND DOWNED TREES ARE
  POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME DAMAGE TO BUILDINGS. REMEMBER THAT
  FALLING TREES AND TREE LIMBS CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY OR DEATH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS HIGH
WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF 58 MPH
OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.


High tides for Sunday are predicted to be 11.99 at 8:37 am and 10.52 at 9:54 pm. However, it's possible we could have "coastal flooding" as we do today and have had the last couple days, which will raise the tides even higher.

Seattle City Forecast:

…COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM PST THIS MORNING…
…HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT…

TODAY…BREEZY. RAIN AT TIMES IN THE MORNING…THEN SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE… EXCEPT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT…WINDY. SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING…THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH POSSIBLE…EXCEPT HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 30 MPH.

SUNDAY…WINDY…RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. EAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO SOUTHEAST 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT…VERY WINDY. RAIN AT TIMES IN THE EVENING…THEN SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. LOWS NEAR 40. SOUTH WIND 25 TO 40 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 55 MPH.

MONDAY…WINDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH POSSIBLE. HIGHS NEAR 50. SOUTH WIND 15 TO 25 MPH BECOMING SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

Puget Sound Marine Forecast:

  TODAY  S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT. RAIN IN THE  MORNING…THEN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  TONIGHT  S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT. A CHANCE OF  TSTMS IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS.  

SUN  SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING E 20 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  WIND WAVES 2 TO 5 FT. RAIN.  

SUN NIGHT  S WIND 25 TO 35 KT. WIND WAVES 4 TO 6 FT.

Charge up your cell phones, be safe and stay tuned! Should we lose power, we will be posting on Facebook… now might be a good time to “like” our Facebook page.

If you are a long time reader of Beach Drive Blog, you are familiar with the “barking dog” report. A “barking dog” report is when we are preparing to possibly flood from waves breaching our bulkhead. It’s called a “barking dog” because, much like a neighbor’s barking dog – it could be much ado about nothing. We are not professional weather people – we do care about our neighbors and will “bark” if we see what we think is enough warning. And, like your neighbor’s barking dog, we’re not always right.

So… this is what we’re looking at right now and this is subject to change (please check links on the right for updated forecast).

First of all, we have some very high tides in the next couple of days, paired with the strong winds. This chart is from NOAA.

Now check out this chart from Wind Alert for Alki Point.

This is concerning.

We have an 11.39 on Wednesday at 4:56 pm… what seems to be more concerning is the next high tide estimated at 12.44 at 5:38 am on Thursday when it’s predicted we may have gusts up to 50 mph.

Puget Sound Marine forecast:

 WED NIGHT  SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT…BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT AFTER  MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 5 FT. RAIN.  

THU  S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. WIND WAVES 3 TO 5 FT.  

THU NIGHT  SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT…BECOMING S 10 TO 20 KT AFTER  MIDNIGHT. WIND WAVES 2 TO 4 FT.

If for nothing else, this is a good reason to make sure you are prepared for potential flooding and to check on neighbors – make sure they know about this potential storm.

I hope this is a big to-do about nothing.